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000048.SZ$13.96+1.23%
Fair $13.96+0.0%

000048.SZ

Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsShenzhen

$13.96

+0.17 (+1.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.96Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $393.1M · quality 42.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 3.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000048.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.4B

P/E

47.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.0x

↑

ROE

3.7%

↓

Gross Margin

13.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.42

↑
52-Week Range$14
$12$24

TradingView lightweight chart

000048.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.79Periodo -11.9%
Fair value: $13.96

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.1%

FCF / Net income

2.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.87B · net income $152.8M · FCF $393.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.8%-20.0% pts

Operating margin

6.7%-12.3% pts

Net margin

3.1%-9.8% pts

FCF margin

8.1%+23.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.87B$4.87B$5.96B$12.42B$6.00B
Net Income$152.8M$152.8M$713.8M$1.75B$773.1M
EBITDA$762.9M$762.9M$1.43B$3.15B$1.51B
EPS0.300.301.383.331.48
Gross Margin13.8%13.8%28.0%38.7%33.7%
Operating Margin6.7%6.7%18.8%22.9%18.9%
Net Margin3.1%3.1%12.0%14.1%12.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.420.420.490.690.66
Current Ratio0.450.45———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$393.1M$393.1M$756.7M$-1.38B$-903.3M
Returns
ROE3.7%3.7%16.6%45.3%29.5%
Valuation
P/E47.1947.1911.735.2612.29
EV/EBITDA11.0311.036.703.416.03
P/B1.771.771.952.393.62
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-18.3%-18.3%-52.0%107.1%—
EPS Growth-78.5%-78.5%-58.7%125.5%—
Dividend Yield7.5%7.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

61.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.24

Spread vs growth

-139.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

38.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.50

Spread vs growth

-116.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.41

Spread vs growth

-101.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -17.9%

Total return

-17.9%

Start / end P/E

13.6x → 47.2x

EPS bridge

1.38 → 0.30

Residual

-193.7%

EPS growth-78.5%
Multiple rerating+246.8%
Dividend+7.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-193.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.