Economic Intelligence

Macro & AI Impact

Tracking AI's effect on employment, productivity, and the economy — US data via FRED

Updated Jun 1, 2026, 06:23 PM

AI Economic Shift

All series indexed to 100 — green/purple = capital vs red/orange/yellow = labor. Blue = net displacement.

+5.8

Displacement Index

Monthly headcount by sector — watch tech and finance for early AI displacement signals

Tech2.8M-10K

Finance9.1M—

Prof. Services22.5M+264K

Retail15.3M+63K

Transport6.5M-2K

Manufacturing12.6M-3K

Healthcare28.0M+79K

Total Nonfarm158.7M+115K

Unemployment, participation, wages, productivity — the AI impact shows first in productivity vs. employment divergence

Unemployment4.3%—

Underemployment8.2%+0.20pp

Participation61.8%-0.10pp

Job Openings6.9M-56K

Hourly Wages$37.41+$0.06

Productivity119.6+0.2%

Unit Labor Costs124.7+0.6%

GDP growth, inflation, consumer credit, IT investment — context for whether AI gains are showing up at macro level

GDP Growth1.6%+1.10pp

CPI332.4+0.6%

PCE130.9+0.4%

Consumer Credit$5.1T+0.5%

IT Investment$1.6T+6.5%

Interest rates and corporate profits — higher rates compress tech valuations; rising profits may signal AI margin expansion

Fed Funds3.6%—

10Y Treasury4.5%+0.17pp

Corp. Profits$3.9T+$125B