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000096.SZ$8.35-1.76%
Fair $8.35+0.0%

000096.SZ

Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co., Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingShenzhen

$8.35

-0.15 (-1.76%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.35Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $48.4M · quality 51.0/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 4.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000096.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.4B

P/E

39.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

26.7x

↑

ROE

4.2%

↑

Gross Margin

12.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$8
$8$19

TradingView lightweight chart

000096.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.500Periodo +59.6%
Fair value: $8.350

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-16.3%

FCF / Net income

-1.93x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.37B · net income $114.8M · FCF $-222.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.5%+4.1% pts

Operating margin

3.8%+1.3% pts

Net margin

8.4%+5.8% pts

FCF margin

-16.3%-20.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.37B$1.37B$1.98B$2.55B$2.10B
Net Income$114.8M$114.8M$97.0M$88.1M$55.1M
EBITDA$157.3M$157.3M$143.0M$142.3M$97.7M
EPS0.220.220.180.170.10
Gross Margin12.5%12.5%9.1%7.4%8.5%
Operating Margin3.8%3.8%3.0%2.5%2.5%
Net Margin8.4%8.4%4.9%3.5%2.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.010.000.00
Current Ratio1.461.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-222.0M$-222.0M$86.3M$48.4M$96.7M
Returns
ROE4.2%4.2%3.5%3.3%2.1%
Valuation
P/E39.7639.7662.1569.8278.08
EV/EBITDA26.7126.7136.7236.3330.71
P/B1.611.612.152.271.67
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-30.9%-30.9%-22.5%21.5%—
EPS Growth18.4%18.4%9.9%60.6%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

50.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.74

Spread vs growth

-32.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

32.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.90

Spread vs growth

-14.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.44

Spread vs growth

-2.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -50.0%

Total return

-50.0%

Start / end P/E

92.6x → 38.4x

EPS bridge

0.18 → 0.22

Residual

-10.8%

EPS growth+18.4%
Multiple rerating-58.5%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.