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000407.SZ$4.30+0.00%
Fair $4.30+0.0%

000407.SZ

Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd.

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingShenzhen

$4.30

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.30Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 8/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $222.1M · quality 73.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 68/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 000407.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

22.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.7x

↑

ROE

5.1%

↑

Gross Margin

16.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.39

↑
52-Week Range$4
$3$7

TradingView lightweight chart

000407.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.300Periodo +18.0%
Fair value: $4.300

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

+11.5%

FCF margin

3.9%

FCF / Net income

1.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.17B · net income $155.8M · FCF $162.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.3%+1.7% pts

Operating margin

7.7%+1.2% pts

Net margin

3.7%+0.5% pts

FCF margin

3.9%+1.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.17B$4.17B$4.23B$4.68B$4.65B
Net Income$155.8M$155.8M$117.2M$153.4M$152.7M
EBITDA$449.2M$449.2M$401.2M$514.1M$484.6M
EPS0.180.180.130.170.17
Gross Margin16.3%16.3%16.2%16.0%14.6%
Operating Margin7.7%7.7%6.1%7.3%6.5%
Net Margin3.7%3.7%2.8%3.3%3.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.390.390.510.680.75
Current Ratio0.690.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$162.3M$162.3M$222.1M$354.8M$116.9M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%4.0%5.3%5.6%
Valuation
P/E22.6322.6323.6921.9423.12
EV/EBITDA9.709.708.658.899.57
P/B1.221.220.941.171.29
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.4%-1.4%-9.7%0.7%—
EPS Growth38.5%38.5%-23.5%0.0%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

28.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.38

Spread vs growth

10.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

20.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.46

Spread vs growth

17.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.74

Spread vs growth

23.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +29.3%

Total return

+29.3%

Start / end P/E

25.8x → 23.9x

EPS bridge

0.13 → 0.18

Residual

-2.9%

EPS growth+38.5%
Multiple rerating-7.6%
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.