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000570.SZ$5.56-1.77%
Fair $5.56+0.0%

000570.SZ

Changchai Company, Limited

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$5.56

-0.10 (-1.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.56Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $40.1M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 33/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000570.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Changchai Company, Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.9B

P/E

46.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.5x

↑

ROE

1.5%

↓

Gross Margin

12.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$6
$5$7

TradingView lightweight chart

000570.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.560Periodo -11.3%
Fair value: $5.560

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.3%

FCF CAGR

-4.3%

FCF margin

11.2%

FCF / Net income

5.46x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.48B · net income $50.8M · FCF $277.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.0%+1.3% pts

Operating margin

2.5%+6.1% pts

Net margin

2.1%-1.5% pts

FCF margin

11.2%-3.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.48B$2.48B$2.42B$2.16B$2.18B
Net Income$50.8M$50.8M$18.5M$108.5M$76.7M
EBITDA$152.8M$152.8M$106.8M$250.2M$169.5M
EPS0.070.070.030.150.11
Gross Margin12.0%12.0%12.3%12.6%10.7%
Operating Margin2.5%2.5%1.8%-0.2%-3.7%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%0.8%5.0%3.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.03—0.04
Current Ratio2.022.02———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$277.7M$277.7M$-173.6M$40.1M$316.5M
Returns
ROE1.5%1.5%0.5%3.2%2.3%
Valuation
P/E46.3346.33180.5336.5646.83
EV/EBITDA17.5117.5122.1711.5216.38
P/B1.141.140.991.171.09
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.5%2.5%12.1%-1.2%—
EPS Growth174.8%174.8%-83.0%41.4%—
Dividend Yield0.4%0.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

89.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.49

Spread vs growth

84.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

52.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.60

Spread vs growth

122.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

29.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.96

Spread vs growth

145.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.9%

Total return

-1.9%

Start / end P/E

217.2x → 77.2x

EPS bridge

0.03 → 0.07

Residual

-112.7%

EPS growth+174.8%
Multiple rerating-64.4%
Dividend+0.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-112.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.