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000828.SZ$10.11-1.08%
Fair $10.11+0.0%

000828.SZ

Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Infrastructure OperationsShenzhen

$10.11

-0.11 (-1.08%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.11Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-537.3M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 0/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 000828.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Dongguan Development (Holdings) Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.5B

P/E

11.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.3x

↓

ROE

8.1%

↑

Gross Margin

68.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.46

↑
52-Week Range$10
$10$13

TradingView lightweight chart

000828.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.22Periodo +61.4%
Fair value: $10.11

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-27.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

61.1%

FCF / Net income

1.15x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.55B · net income $823.5M · FCF $948.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

68.0%+44.7% pts

Operating margin

60.7%+39.4% pts

Net margin

53.1%+32.9% pts

FCF margin

61.1%+190.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.55B$1.55B$1.69B$4.69B$4.10B
Net Income$823.5M$823.5M$955.2M$666.8M$827.9M
EBITDA$1.33B$1.33B$1.60B$1.24B$1.40B
EPS0.790.790.910.590.76
Gross Margin68.0%68.0%65.5%25.0%23.3%
Operating Margin60.7%60.7%58.7%22.4%21.2%
Net Margin53.1%53.1%56.5%14.2%20.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.460.460.690.770.90
Current Ratio2.272.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$948.6M$948.6M$-537.3M$-2.44B$-5.31B
Returns
ROE8.1%8.1%9.7%6.1%7.8%
Valuation
P/E11.7611.7610.7518.0111.95
EV/EBITDA9.309.307.9713.8010.04
P/B1.031.031.041.100.94
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.3%-8.3%-63.9%14.2%—
EPS Growth-12.8%-12.8%54.0%-21.9%—
Dividend Yield4.7%4.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

4.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.90

Spread vs growth

-17.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.09

Spread vs growth

-19.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.75

Spread vs growth

-21.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +1.9%

Total return

+1.9%

Start / end P/E

11.4x → 12.8x

EPS bridge

0.91 → 0.79

Residual

-1.5%

EPS growth-12.8%
Multiple rerating+11.5%
Dividend+4.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.