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000838.SZ$1.92+0.52%
Fair $1.92+0.0%

000838.SZ

CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentShenzhen

$1.92

+0.01 (+0.52%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.92Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 17/F
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 0.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

17/100

F

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000838.SZLocal privado en este navegador · CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

314.8%

↑

Gross Margin

42.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

-1.61

↓
52-Week Range$2
$2$4

TradingView lightweight chart

000838.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.920Periodo +44.6%
Fair value: $1.920

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-59.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

23.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.10x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $283.3M · net income $-630.1M · FCF $66.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

42.4%+23.8% pts

Operating margin

-79.8%-88.9% pts

Net margin

-222.4%-216.9% pts

FCF margin

23.3%+28.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$283.3M$283.3M$828.5M$4.02B$4.20B
Net Income$-630.1M$-630.1M$-260.2M$-250.1M$-229.6M
EBITDA$-497.1M$-497.1M$-242.9M$-112.7M$-291.5M
EPS-0.57-0.57-0.24-0.23-0.21
Gross Margin42.4%42.4%-0.3%11.4%18.6%
Operating Margin-79.8%-79.8%-12.1%6.6%9.1%
Net Margin-222.4%-222.4%-31.4%-6.2%-5.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity-1.61-1.610.801.081.14
Current Ratio0.750.75———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$66.0M$66.0M$-65.2M$-113.9M$-212.2M
Returns
ROE314.8%314.8%-61.9%-36.7%-23.7%
Valuation
P/B——6.545.855.88
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-65.8%-65.8%-79.4%-4.2%—
EPS Growth-142.2%-142.2%-4.0%-9.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -22.6%

Total return

-22.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.24 → -0.57

Residual

-22.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-22.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.