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000886.SZ$4.85+1.25%
Fair $4.85+0.0%

000886.SZ

Hainan Expressway Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShenzhen

$4.85

+0.06 (+1.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.85Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-403.0M · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 4.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000886.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hainan Expressway Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.8B

P/E

32.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

25.2x

↑

ROE

4.8%

↓

Gross Margin

13.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$5
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

000886.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.850Periodo -0.9%
Fair value: $4.850

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+57.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-41.1%

FCF / Net income

-1.75x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $657.2M · net income $154.6M · FCF $-269.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.4%-42.0% pts

Operating margin

-12.4%+27.6% pts

Net margin

23.5%-124.4% pts

FCF margin

-41.1%+69.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$657.2M$657.2M$232.8M$124.2M$169.2M
Net Income$154.6M$154.6M$61.5M$90.5M$250.2M
EBITDA$197.2M$197.2M$79.0M$135.5M$321.7M
EPS0.160.160.060.090.25
Gross Margin13.4%13.4%16.3%30.8%55.4%
Operating Margin-12.4%-12.4%-38.8%-76.8%-40.0%
Net Margin23.5%23.5%26.4%72.9%147.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.060.010.00
Current Ratio3.063.06———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-269.9M$-269.9M$-763.4M$-403.0M$-186.2M
Returns
ROE4.8%4.8%2.0%3.0%8.3%
Valuation
P/E32.3332.3392.7444.7819.20
EV/EBITDA25.2325.2369.9520.8210.10
P/B1.501.501.881.331.59
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth182.3%182.3%87.5%-26.6%—
EPS Growth151.6%151.6%-32.6%-63.2%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

40.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.43

Spread vs growth

111.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.52

Spread vs growth

124.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.84

Spread vs growth

133.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -20.6%

Total return

-20.6%

Start / end P/E

99.7x → 31.1x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.16

Residual

-104.3%

EPS growth+151.6%
Multiple rerating-68.8%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-104.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.