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000957.SZ$10.30-1.15%
Fair $10.30+0.0%

000957.SZ

Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD

Industrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachineryShenzhen

$10.30

-0.12 (-1.15%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.30Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.1B · quality 79.3/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 78/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 000957.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.1B

P/E

14.5x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.3x

↓

ROE

11.5%

↑

Gross Margin

17.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$10
$10$13

TradingView lightweight chart

000957.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.30Periodo +450.9%
Fair value: $10.30

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.6%

FCF CAGR

-0.9%

FCF margin

15.3%

FCF / Net income

3.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.33B · net income $359.7M · FCF $1.12B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.6%+0.2% pts

Operating margin

7.8%+4.6% pts

Net margin

4.9%+3.0% pts

FCF margin

15.3%-6.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.33B$7.33B$5.73B$4.24B$5.28B
Net Income$359.7M$359.7M$249.4M$69.7M$98.3M
EBITDA$507.1M$507.1M$385.7M$246.3M$289.5M
EPS0.650.650.420.120.17
Gross Margin17.6%17.6%18.6%21.6%17.5%
Operating Margin7.8%7.8%7.1%6.7%3.2%
Net Margin4.9%4.9%4.4%1.6%1.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.06—0.180.42
Current Ratio1.261.26———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.12B$1.12B$1.43B$434.8M$1.15B
Returns
ROE11.5%11.5%8.5%2.6%3.7%
Valuation
P/E14.5114.5124.3274.2174.43
EV/EBITDA5.325.328.4015.0721.98
P/B1.821.822.061.892.75
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.8%27.8%35.1%-19.6%—
EPS Growth53.7%53.7%258.0%-29.1%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

12.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.91

Spread vs growth

41.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.11

Spread vs growth

42.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.78

Spread vs growth

43.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -9.7%

Total return

-9.7%

Start / end P/E

27.4x → 15.9x

EPS bridge

0.42 → 0.65

Residual

-22.5%

EPS growth+53.7%
Multiple rerating-41.9%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-22.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.