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000968.SZ$7.64-2.68%
Fair $7.64+0.0%

000968.SZ

Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited

Energy / Oil & Gas E&PShenzhen

$7.64

-0.21 (-2.68%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.64Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $410.8M · quality 63.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 55/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 000968.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.4B

P/E

24.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.0x

↑

ROE

5.4%

↑

Gross Margin

31.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.53

↑
52-Week Range$8
$6$12

TradingView lightweight chart

000968.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.850Periodo -1.8%
Fair value: $7.640

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.5%

FCF CAGR

+202.9%

FCF margin

21.4%

FCF / Net income

1.35x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.11B · net income $334.9M · FCF $452.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.4%-6.5% pts

Operating margin

23.3%-7.8% pts

Net margin

15.9%-6.6% pts

FCF margin

21.4%+20.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.11B$2.11B$2.27B$2.38B$2.50B
Net Income$334.9M$334.9M$434.4M$540.2M$563.2M
EBITDA$1.15B$1.15B$1.20B$1.31B$1.29B
EPS0.350.350.450.560.58
Gross Margin31.4%31.4%35.3%35.9%37.9%
Operating Margin23.3%23.3%26.2%31.9%31.0%
Net Margin15.9%15.9%19.2%22.7%22.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.530.530.650.730.62
Current Ratio1.211.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$452.0M$452.0M$410.8M$354.6M$16.3M
Returns
ROE5.4%5.4%7.3%9.5%10.9%
Valuation
P/E24.6524.6514.2912.6815.07
EV/EBITDA8.048.047.086.858.00
P/B1.171.171.051.211.64
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.9%-6.9%-4.9%-4.8%—
EPS Growth-22.2%-22.2%-19.6%-3.4%—
Dividend Yield0.4%0.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

24.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-46.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

18.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.82

Spread vs growth

-40.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

14.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

-36.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.8%

Total return

+16.8%

Start / end P/E

14.6x → 21.8x

EPS bridge

0.45 → 0.35

Residual

-11.1%

EPS growth-22.2%
Multiple rerating+49.7%
Dividend+0.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-11.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.