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000978.SZ$6.54-2.53%
Fair $6.54+0.0%

000978.SZ

Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited

Consumer Cyclical / LodgingShenzhen

$6.54

-0.17 (-2.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.54Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $71.0M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 31/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 000978.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.1B

P/E

218.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

26.6x

↑

ROE

1.0%

↓

Gross Margin

31.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.78

↑
52-Week Range$7
$6$9

TradingView lightweight chart

000978.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.710Periodo -41.6%
Fair value: $6.540

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+50.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

16.1%

FCF / Net income

6.43x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $440.3M · net income $11.0M · FCF $71.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.4%+106.3% pts

Operating margin

5.0%+165.4% pts

Net margin

2.5%+226.6% pts

FCF margin

16.1%+127.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$440.3M$440.3M$431.7M$467.1M$129.4M
Net Income$11.0M$11.0M$-204.5M$11.8M$-290.0M
EBITDA$140.4M$140.4M$-63.0M$133.9M$-154.4M
EPS0.020.02-0.440.03-0.70
Gross Margin31.4%31.4%27.5%29.9%-75.0%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%0.3%3.5%-160.4%
Net Margin2.5%2.5%-47.4%2.5%-224.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.780.780.770.660.70
Current Ratio0.850.85———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$71.0M$71.0M$22.8M$92.5M$-143.7M
Returns
ROE1.0%1.0%-19.1%0.9%-22.9%
Valuation
P/E218.00218.00—298.81—
EV/EBITDA26.6226.62—32.18—
P/B2.822.822.542.772.79
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.0%2.0%-7.6%260.9%—
EPS Growth105.4%105.4%-1833.3%103.6%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

190.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.58

Spread vs growth

-85.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

97.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.70

Spread vs growth

8.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

47.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.13

Spread vs growth

58.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.9%

Total return

+7.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.44 → 0.02

Residual

+7.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+7.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.