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001209.SZ$21.17+2.42%
Fair $21.17+0.0%

001209.SZ

Guangdong Hongxing Industrial Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Apparel ManufacturingShenzhen

$21.17

+0.50 (+2.42%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $21.17Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-23.2M · quality 54.0/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 001209.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Hongxing Industrial Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

124.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

28.9x

↑

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

32.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.12

↓
52-Week Range$21
$16$35

TradingView lightweight chart

001209.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $21.17Periodo -31.1%
Fair value: $21.17

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.8%

FCF / Net income

2.44x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.83B · net income $21.1M · FCF $51.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.2%-6.1% pts

Operating margin

4.9%-1.2% pts

Net margin

1.2%+2.3% pts

FCF margin

2.8%+25.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.83B$1.83B$1.78B$1.60B$1.33B
Net Income$21.1M$21.1M$80.3M$87.1M$-15.0M
EBITDA$89.9M$89.9M$145.1M$142.6M$10.1M
EPS0.160.160.620.66-0.11
Gross Margin32.2%32.2%33.2%34.9%38.4%
Operating Margin4.9%4.9%5.7%6.9%6.1%
Net Margin1.2%1.2%4.5%5.5%-1.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.120.120.110.060.01
Current Ratio1.911.91———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$51.5M$51.5M$-23.2M$-140.4M$-307.0M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%6.2%6.9%-1.2%
Valuation
P/E124.53124.5325.9227.27—
EV/EBITDA28.8728.8713.2714.93165.05
P/B2.162.161.611.871.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%11.2%20.2%—
EPS Growth-74.2%-74.2%-6.1%700.0%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

127.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.88

Spread vs growth

-201.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

70.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.27

Spread vs growth

-144.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

36.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.66

Spread vs growth

-110.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.0%

Total return

+20.0%

Start / end P/E

28.7x → 132.3x

EPS bridge

0.62 → 0.16

Residual

-268.1%

EPS growth-74.2%
Multiple rerating+361.4%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-268.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.