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001296.SZ$20.78+4.84%
Fair $20.78+0.0%

001296.SZ

Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Metal FabricationShenzhen

$20.78

+0.96 (+4.84%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $20.78Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $51.6M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 001296.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.1B

P/E

27.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.7x

↑

ROE

6.9%

↑

Gross Margin

25.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$21
$17$34

TradingView lightweight chart

001296.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $20.78Periodo +2.7%
Fair value: $20.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.4%

FCF / Net income

0.42x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.16B · net income $123.9M · FCF $51.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.2%+5.9% pts

Operating margin

13.9%+5.9% pts

Net margin

10.7%+3.1% pts

FCF margin

4.4%+11.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.16B$1.16B$1.05B$1.01B$946.5M
Net Income$123.9M$123.9M$121.2M$135.8M$71.9M
EBITDA$223.2M$223.2M$206.3M$213.7M$126.3M
EPS0.850.850.810.910.48
Gross Margin25.2%25.2%24.7%25.1%19.2%
Operating Margin13.9%13.9%14.0%14.6%8.0%
Net Margin10.7%10.7%11.6%13.5%7.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.100.080.070.02
Current Ratio7.057.05———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$51.6M$51.6M$66.9M$-92.0M$-68.5M
Returns
ROE6.9%6.9%7.2%8.0%4.6%
Valuation
P/E26.9926.9921.8118.6629.58
EV/EBITDA13.7213.7212.6610.4715.02
P/B1.701.701.561.491.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.1%11.1%3.8%6.5%—
EPS Growth4.0%4.0%-10.5%90.1%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

29.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.84

Spread vs growth

-25.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

21.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.23

Spread vs growth

-17.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

15.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.59

Spread vs growth

-11.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.3%

Total return

+20.3%

Start / end P/E

21.5x → 24.5x

EPS bridge

0.81 → 0.85

Residual

+0.6%

EPS growth+4.0%
Multiple rerating+13.9%
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.