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001318.SZ$11.98-2.60%
Fair $11.98+0.0%

001318.SZ

Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsShenzhen

$11.98

-0.32 (-2.60%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.98Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $113.0M · quality 84.3/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 84/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 001318.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.4B

P/E

33.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

22.0x

↑

ROE

7.2%

↑

Gross Margin

39.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$12
$12$18

TradingView lightweight chart

001318.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.98Periodo -12.0%
Fair value: $11.98

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.7%

FCF CAGR

+1.3%

FCF margin

23.7%

FCF / Net income

1.08x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $477.1M · net income $104.5M · FCF $113.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

39.5%+5.1% pts

Operating margin

20.4%+3.2% pts

Net margin

21.9%+2.4% pts

FCF margin

23.7%+4.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$477.1M$477.1M$519.4M$569.9M$569.6M
Net Income$104.5M$104.5M$114.6M$115.8M$110.9M
EBITDA$137.5M$137.5M$150.7M$152.8M$146.4M
EPS0.370.370.410.410.44
Gross Margin39.5%39.5%37.9%36.4%34.4%
Operating Margin20.4%20.4%20.8%19.6%17.2%
Net Margin21.9%21.9%22.1%20.3%19.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio29.6229.62———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$113.0M$113.0M$105.5M$133.2M$108.6M
Returns
ROE7.2%7.2%8.2%8.7%8.8%
Valuation
P/E33.2833.2826.7534.3640.37
EV/EBITDA22.0222.0216.6822.8628.11
P/B2.322.322.182.983.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.1%-8.1%-8.9%0.1%—
EPS Growth-8.8%-8.8%-1.1%-6.4%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

42.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.06

Spread vs growth

-51.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

28.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.29

Spread vs growth

-37.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.07

Spread vs growth

-27.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -11.2%

Total return

-11.2%

Start / end P/E

33.9x → 32.4x

EPS bridge

0.41 → 0.37

Residual

+0.4%

EPS growth-8.8%
Multiple rerating-4.2%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.