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v0.1
002014.SZ$10.50-0.38%
Fair $10.50+0.0%

002014.SZ

Huangshan Novel Co.,Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShenzhen

$10.50

-0.04 (-0.38%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.50Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $309.4M · quality 69.7/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 71/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002014.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Huangshan Novel Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.4B

P/E

14.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

10.1x

↑

ROE

17.7%

↑

Gross Margin

23.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.43

↓
52-Week Range$11
$10$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002014.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.56Periodo +423.3%
Fair value: $10.50

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.1%

FCF CAGR

-11.2%

FCF margin

4.4%

FCF / Net income

0.38x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.72B · net income $438.1M · FCF $164.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.0%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

13.9%+1.7% pts

Net margin

11.8%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

4.4%-2.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.72B$3.72B$3.53B$3.38B$3.30B
Net Income$438.1M$438.1M$467.8M$408.0M$362.8M
EBITDA$659.1M$659.1M$694.5M$629.8M$547.3M
EPS0.720.720.760.670.60
Gross Margin23.0%23.0%23.8%24.7%22.2%
Operating Margin13.9%13.9%15.0%14.5%12.2%
Net Margin11.8%11.8%13.3%12.1%11.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.430.430.370.290.23
Current Ratio2.172.17———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$164.8M$164.8M$309.4M$405.6M$235.2M
Returns
ROE17.7%17.7%18.1%16.6%15.9%
Valuation
P/E14.5814.5814.1312.9913.93
EV/EBITDA10.1210.129.297.678.54
P/B2.582.582.552.162.22
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.6%5.6%4.3%2.3%—
EPS Growth-5.3%-5.3%13.4%11.7%—
Dividend Yield5.2%5.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

9.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.93

Spread vs growth

-14.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.13

Spread vs growth

-14.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.82

Spread vs growth

-15.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -0.2%

Total return

-0.2%

Start / end P/E

14.7x → 14.7x

EPS bridge

0.76 → 0.72

Residual

+0.0%

EPS growth-5.3%
Multiple rerating-0.1%
Dividend+5.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.