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002041.SZ$8.71-1.80%
Fair $8.71+0.0%

002041.SZ

ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsShenzhen

$8.71

-0.16 (-1.80%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.71Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $59.8M · quality 45.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 2.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002041.SZLocal privado en este navegador · ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

79.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

25.2x

↑

ROE

2.5%

↓

Gross Margin

29.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$9
$9$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002041.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.710Periodo +362.6%
Fair value: $8.710

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

9.2%

FCF / Net income

1.10x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.10B · net income $91.7M · FCF $101.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.6%-2.3% pts

Operating margin

9.5%-7.7% pts

Net margin

8.3%-10.8% pts

FCF margin

9.2%+12.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.10B$1.10B$1.25B$1.55B$1.33B
Net Income$91.7M$91.7M$56.6M$255.8M$253.2M
EBITDA$212.7M$212.7M$130.8M$366.7M$362.6M
EPS0.100.100.060.290.29
Gross Margin29.6%29.6%28.1%28.8%31.9%
Operating Margin9.5%9.5%9.9%14.5%17.1%
Net Margin8.3%8.3%4.5%16.5%19.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.010.000.00
Current Ratio6.166.16———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$101.0M$101.0M$-6.6M$59.8M$-41.0M
Returns
ROE2.5%2.5%1.6%7.2%7.6%
Valuation
P/E79.1879.18163.6143.3869.04
EV/EBITDA25.1625.1659.2726.7045.09
P/B2.092.092.583.115.28
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.5%-11.5%-19.7%17.1%—
EPS Growth62.1%62.1%-77.9%1.0%—
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

95.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.77

Spread vs growth

-33.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

55.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.94

Spread vs growth

7.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

30.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.51

Spread vs growth

31.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.7%

Total return

-14.7%

Start / end P/E

159.4x → 83.6x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.10

Residual

-29.5%

EPS growth+62.1%
Multiple rerating-47.6%
Dividend+0.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-29.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.