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002062.SZ$8.54-4.79%
Fair $8.54+0.0%

002062.SZ

Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShenzhen

$8.54

-0.43 (-4.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.54Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $785.0M · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002062.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.6B

P/E

40.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.4x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↓

Gross Margin

12.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.50

↑
52-Week Range$9
$4$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002062.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.540Periodo +424.6%
Fair value: $8.540

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-12.9%

FCF CAGR

-6.1%

FCF margin

16.2%

FCF / Net income

3.32x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.75B · net income $279.7M · FCF $929.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

12.7%-2.9% pts

Operating margin

5.1%-4.3% pts

Net margin

4.9%+0.7% pts

FCF margin

16.2%+3.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.75B$5.75B$5.92B$6.43B$8.70B
Net Income$279.7M$279.7M$282.9M$339.1M$364.4M
EBITDA$576.3M$576.3M$665.6M$698.7M$934.6M
EPS0.230.230.260.310.33
Gross Margin12.7%12.7%16.5%15.2%15.6%
Operating Margin5.1%5.1%9.6%8.3%9.5%
Net Margin4.9%4.9%4.8%5.3%4.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.500.500.510.570.80
Current Ratio1.271.27———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$929.1M$929.1M$185.2M$785.0M$1.12B
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%5.7%7.8%8.9%
Valuation
P/E40.6740.6720.0814.3216.55
EV/EBITDA16.4416.447.546.356.72
P/B2.122.121.151.121.47
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.0%-3.0%-7.8%-26.1%—
EPS Growth-11.5%-11.5%-16.1%-6.1%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

48.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.76

Spread vs growth

-60.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

31.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.92

Spread vs growth

-43.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

20.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.48

Spread vs growth

-32.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +71.9%

Total return

+71.9%

Start / end P/E

19.2x → 37.1x

EPS bridge

0.26 → 0.23

Residual

-10.7%

EPS growth-11.5%
Multiple rerating+93.1%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-10.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.