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002154.SZ$4.15+2.44%
Fair $4.15+0.0%

002154.SZ

Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Apparel ManufacturingShenzhen

$4.15

+0.10 (+2.44%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.15Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 63/B
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $324.3M · quality 67.0/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 56/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

63/100

B

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 002154.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.1B

P/E

15.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.9x

↓

ROE

7.4%

↑

Gross Margin

64.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$4
$4$5

TradingView lightweight chart

002154.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.200Periodo -9.0%
Fair value: $4.150

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.2%

FCF CAGR

+0.8%

FCF margin

6.3%

FCF / Net income

0.95x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $5.17B · net income $341.7M · FCF $324.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

64.5%+1.8% pts

Operating margin

11.4%-5.3% pts

Net margin

6.6%-4.0% pts

FCF margin

6.3%-1.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$5.17B$5.17B$5.15B$5.25B$4.31B
Net Income$341.7M$341.7M$495.0M$697.9M$458.8M
EBITDA$724.8M$724.8M$900.5M$1.09B$787.9M
EPS0.230.230.340.480.31
Gross Margin64.5%64.5%65.0%64.7%62.7%
Operating Margin11.4%11.4%15.7%18.2%16.7%
Net Margin6.6%6.6%9.6%13.3%10.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.110.180.11
Current Ratio2.152.15———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$324.3M$324.3M$91.5M$770.9M$316.6M
Returns
ROE7.4%7.4%11.3%16.1%11.7%
Valuation
P/E15.3715.3712.1512.1313.74
EV/EBITDA6.876.874.976.766.72
P/B1.331.331.381.951.60
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.3%0.3%-1.9%21.8%—
EPS Growth-32.4%-32.4%-29.2%54.8%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

17.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.37

Spread vs growth

-49.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.45

Spread vs growth

-46.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.72

Spread vs growth

-44.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +11.7%

Total return

+11.7%

Start / end P/E

11.5x → 18.3x

EPS bridge

0.34 → 0.23

Residual

-19.2%

EPS growth-32.4%
Multiple rerating+59.2%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.