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002164.SZ$12.71-0.31%
Fair $12.71+0.0%

002164.SZ

Ningbo Donly Co.,Ltd

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$12.71

-0.04 (-0.31%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.71Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $28.4M · quality 47.7/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 17/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002164.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Ningbo Donly Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.8B

P/E

33.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

21.9x

↑

ROE

12.5%

↑

Gross Margin

23.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.18

↓
52-Week Range$13
$8$19

TradingView lightweight chart

002164.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.75Periodo +20.4%
Fair value: $12.71

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-0.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.40x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.47B · net income $195.9M · FCF $-77.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

23.8%-0.0% pts

Operating margin

7.7%-1.3% pts

Net margin

13.3%-9.0% pts

FCF margin

-5.3%-2.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.47B$1.47B$1.46B$1.49B$1.47B
Net Income$195.9M$195.9M$45.9M$40.4M$328.1M
EBITDA$305.3M$305.3M$142.4M$139.0M$427.4M
EPS0.370.370.090.080.62
Gross Margin23.8%23.8%20.1%19.9%23.8%
Operating Margin7.7%7.7%4.1%4.6%9.0%
Net Margin13.3%13.3%3.1%2.7%22.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.180.180.160.240.24
Current Ratio1.391.39———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-77.4M$-77.4M$103.0M$28.4M$-44.0M
Returns
ROE12.5%12.5%3.3%3.0%25.5%
Valuation
P/E33.4533.4551.8979.2510.31
EV/EBITDA21.8621.8616.7024.078.24
P/B4.294.291.732.412.63
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.4%0.4%-1.7%1.3%—
EPS Growth311.1%311.1%12.5%-87.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

45.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.13

Spread vs growth

266.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

29.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.36

Spread vs growth

281.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

19.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.20

Spread vs growth

291.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +32.1%

Total return

+32.1%

Start / end P/E

106.9x → 34.4x

EPS bridge

0.09 → 0.37

Residual

-211.1%

EPS growth+311.1%
Multiple rerating-67.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-211.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.