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002208.SZ$17.25+1.11%
Fair $17.25+0.0%

002208.SZ

Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentShenzhen

$17.25

+0.19 (+1.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $17.25Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 0/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 17.0/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

0/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002208.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hefei Urban Construction Development Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$13.9B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

30.6x

↑

ROE

-0.9%

↓

Gross Margin

15.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.58

↑
52-Week Range$17
$6$26

TradingView lightweight chart

002208.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $17.25Periodo +140.3%
Fair value: $17.25

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-1.8%

FCF / Net income

2.51x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.70B · net income $-56.6M · FCF $-142.1M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

15.7%-12.6% pts

Operating margin

9.9%-7.1% pts

Net margin

-0.7%-12.3% pts

FCF margin

-1.8%+32.8% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$7.70B$7.70B$7.90B$4.03B$7.56B
Net Income$-56.6M$-56.6M$219.4M$334.3M$876.9M
EBITDA$614.5M$614.5M$837.7M$770.9M$1.33B
EPS-0.07-0.070.270.421.09
Gross Margin15.7%15.7%19.2%26.7%28.3%
Operating Margin9.9%9.9%12.9%17.0%17.0%
Net Margin-0.7%-0.7%2.8%8.3%11.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.581.581.311.480.56
Current Ratio2.332.33———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-142.1M$-142.1M$1.07B$-1.90B$-2.62B
Returns
ROE-0.9%-0.9%3.3%5.2%14.2%
Valuation
P/E——24.2216.937.38
EV/EBITDA30.6230.6211.4513.534.77
P/B2.162.160.810.881.05
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.6%-2.6%96.2%-46.7%—
EPS Growth-125.9%-125.9%-35.7%-61.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +158.2%

Total return

+158.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.27 → -0.07

Residual

+158.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+158.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.