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002212.SZ$6.72-1.32%
Fair $6.72+0.0%

002212.SZ

Topsec Technologies Group Inc.

Technology / Software - InfrastructureShenzhen

$6.72

-0.09 (-1.32%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.72Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-122.1M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002212.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Topsec Technologies Group Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.9B

P/E

168.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

19.6x

↑

ROE

0.8%

↓

Gross Margin

66.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.01

↓
52-Week Range$7
$7$14

TradingView lightweight chart

002212.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.720Periodo -27.2%
Fair value: $6.720

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-10.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.57B · net income $74.2M · FCF $-126.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

66.3%+6.6% pts

Operating margin

4.0%-3.6% pts

Net margin

2.9%-2.9% pts

FCF margin

-4.9%+15.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.57B$2.57B$2.82B$3.12B$3.54B
Net Income$74.2M$74.2M$83.0M$-371.4M$205.1M
EBITDA$373.2M$373.2M$343.6M$-67.3M$510.9M
EPS0.060.060.07-0.330.18
Gross Margin66.3%66.3%61.0%60.2%59.7%
Operating Margin4.0%4.0%3.2%3.7%7.6%
Net Margin2.9%2.9%2.9%-11.9%5.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.010.010.010.010.03
Current Ratio2.502.50———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-126.9M$-126.9M$-122.1M$169.4M$-735.6M
Returns
ROE0.8%0.8%0.9%-3.9%2.1%
Valuation
P/E168.00168.0081.86—57.89
EV/EBITDA19.5619.5618.18—22.03
P/B0.810.810.721.101.21
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-8.8%-8.8%-9.7%-11.8%—
EPS Growth-12.3%-12.3%122.5%-282.1%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

110.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.60

Spread vs growth

-122.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

62.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.72

Spread vs growth

-74.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

33.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.16

Spread vs growth

-45.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.1%

Total return

-7.1%

Start / end P/E

99.3x → 104.5x

EPS bridge

0.07 → 0.06

Residual

-0.6%

EPS growth-12.3%
Multiple rerating+5.2%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.