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002363.SZ$7.28+2.82%
Fair $7.28+0.0%

002363.SZ

Shandong Longji Machinery Co.,Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$7.28

+0.20 (+2.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.28Fund rank 38/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $143.5M · quality 85.3/100

Data gap 38/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 81/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002363.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shandong Longji Machinery Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.0B

P/E

45.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.7x

↑

ROE

3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

10.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$7
$7$11

TradingView lightweight chart

002363.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.280Periodo -35.8%
Fair value: $7.280

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

-2.1%

FCF margin

7.0%

FCF / Net income

2.12x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.04B · net income $67.0M · FCF $141.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

10.1%+3.1% pts

Operating margin

3.4%+2.6% pts

Net margin

3.3%+1.3% pts

FCF margin

7.0%+0.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.04B$2.04B$2.38B$2.23B$2.27B
Net Income$67.0M$67.0M$47.0M$36.9M$45.6M
EBITDA$214.5M$214.5M$182.1M$172.2M$192.6M
EPS0.160.160.110.090.11
Gross Margin10.1%10.1%9.3%8.3%7.0%
Operating Margin3.4%3.4%2.3%2.1%0.8%
Net Margin3.3%3.3%2.0%1.7%2.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.030.040.05
Current Ratio2.982.98———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$141.8M$141.8M$202.4M$143.5M$151.2M
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%2.2%1.7%2.1%
Valuation
P/E45.5045.5054.6485.8967.82
EV/EBITDA9.699.698.4913.2611.68
P/B1.411.411.211.491.45
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.3%-14.3%7.0%-2.1%—
EPS Growth45.5%45.5%22.2%-18.2%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

59.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.65

Spread vs growth

-13.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

37.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

8.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

22.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.26

Spread vs growth

22.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.5%

Total return

-3.5%

Start / end P/E

69.4x → 45.5x

EPS bridge

0.11 → 0.16

Residual

-15.6%

EPS growth+45.5%
Multiple rerating-34.4%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.