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002406.SZ$8.72-1.47%
Fair $8.72+0.0%

002406.SZ

Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$8.72

-0.13 (-1.47%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.72Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $44.8M · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002406.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Xuchang Yuandong Drive Shaft Co.Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.4B

P/E

37.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

16.8x

↑

ROE

3.8%

↓

Gross Margin

27.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$9
$7$9

TradingView lightweight chart

002406.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.720Periodo +5.1%
Fair value: $8.720

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.5%

FCF CAGR

-42.9%

FCF margin

2.9%

FCF / Net income

0.29x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.57B · net income $156.2M · FCF $44.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.3%+3.3% pts

Operating margin

13.9%+8.6% pts

Net margin

10.0%+3.2% pts

FCF margin

2.9%-19.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.57B$1.57B$1.28B$1.31B$1.07B
Net Income$156.2M$156.2M$118.3M$94.1M$72.8M
EBITDA$343.0M$343.0M$275.3M$233.3M$198.3M
EPS0.210.210.160.140.11
Gross Margin27.3%27.3%23.1%20.8%24.0%
Operating Margin13.9%13.9%9.9%7.1%5.3%
Net Margin10.0%10.0%9.3%7.2%6.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.010.010.14
Current Ratio4.434.43———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$44.8M$44.8M$66.2M$-106.1M$240.2M
Returns
ROE3.8%3.8%2.9%2.4%2.1%
Valuation
P/E37.9137.9136.9445.3644.27
EV/EBITDA16.8016.8013.2215.7714.87
P/B1.591.591.091.070.93
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth22.9%22.9%-2.3%21.7%—
EPS Growth31.2%31.2%14.3%27.3%—
Dividend Yield1.7%1.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

54.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.77

Spread vs growth

-23.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

34.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.94

Spread vs growth

-3.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.51

Spread vs growth

9.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.4%

Total return

+7.4%

Start / end P/E

51.6x → 41.5x

EPS bridge

0.16 → 0.21

Residual

-6.1%

EPS growth+31.2%
Multiple rerating-19.5%
Dividend+1.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.