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002452.SZ$11.40-3.80%
Fair $11.40+0.0%

002452.SZ

Changgao Electric Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$11.40

-0.45 (-3.80%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.40Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 62/B
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $279.9M · quality 79.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 76/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

62/100

B

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002452.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Changgao Electric Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.1B

P/E

19.3x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.6x

↑

ROE

12.6%

↑

Gross Margin

38.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$11
$7$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002452.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.85Periodo +104.7%
Fair value: $11.40

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.8%

FCF CAGR

+42.6%

FCF margin

17.8%

FCF / Net income

0.87x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.67B · net income $342.6M · FCF $296.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

38.8%+7.5% pts

Operating margin

17.2%+4.8% pts

Net margin

20.6%+15.8% pts

FCF margin

17.8%+9.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.67B$1.67B$1.76B$1.49B$1.22B
Net Income$342.6M$342.6M$252.1M$173.1M$58.0M
EBITDA$472.2M$472.2M$354.1M$256.6M$113.9M
EPS0.550.550.410.280.09
Gross Margin38.8%38.8%38.3%34.4%31.3%
Operating Margin17.2%17.2%18.9%16.2%12.4%
Net Margin20.6%20.6%14.3%11.6%4.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.060.070.09
Current Ratio4.394.39———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$296.8M$296.8M$279.9M$185.6M$102.4M
Returns
ROE12.6%12.6%10.5%7.7%2.8%
Valuation
P/E19.3219.3217.6225.3870.80
EV/EBITDA12.5612.5610.2814.6931.44
P/B2.612.611.841.941.96
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.4%-5.4%17.9%22.1%—
EPS Growth35.9%35.9%45.7%198.4%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

22.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.01

Spread vs growth

13.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.22

Spread vs growth

18.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.97

Spread vs growth

22.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +61.1%

Total return

+61.1%

Start / end P/E

17.5x → 20.6x

EPS bridge

0.41 → 0.55

Residual

+6.4%

EPS growth+35.9%
Multiple rerating+17.8%
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.