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002511.SZ$7.40+2.07%
Fair $7.40+0.0%

002511.SZ

C&S Paper Co.,Ltd

Consumer Defensive / Household & Personal ProductsShenzhen

$7.40

+0.15 (+2.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.40Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $784.6M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002511.SZLocal privado en este navegador · C&S Paper Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.5B

P/E

26.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.0x

↑

ROE

5.8%

↓

Gross Margin

34.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.20

↓
52-Week Range$7
$6$9

TradingView lightweight chart

002511.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.400Periodo +16.6%
Fair value: $7.400

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.8%

FCF CAGR

+151.5%

FCF margin

12.0%

FCF / Net income

3.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $8.78B · net income $318.6M · FCF $1.05B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.0%+2.0% pts

Operating margin

5.4%+0.9% pts

Net margin

3.6%-0.5% pts

FCF margin

12.0%+11.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$8.78B$8.78B$8.15B$9.80B$8.57B
Net Income$318.6M$318.6M$77.2M$332.7M$350.0M
EBITDA$898.3M$898.3M$563.8M$810.1M$822.4M
EPS0.250.250.060.260.27
Gross Margin34.0%34.0%30.7%33.2%32.0%
Operating Margin5.4%5.4%1.2%3.4%4.5%
Net Margin3.6%3.6%0.9%3.4%4.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.200.200.260.180.12
Current Ratio1.831.83———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.05B$1.05B$-778.1M$784.6M$66.2M
Returns
ROE5.8%5.8%1.4%6.1%6.8%
Valuation
P/E26.4326.43109.3336.5049.78
EV/EBITDA9.019.0114.6913.5520.32
P/B1.731.731.562.223.36
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth7.7%7.7%-16.8%14.4%—
EPS Growth316.7%316.7%-76.9%-3.7%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

38.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.66

Spread vs growth

278.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

26.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.79

Spread vs growth

290.6%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.28

Spread vs growth

298.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +6.1%

Total return

+6.1%

Start / end P/E

117.8x → 29.6x

EPS bridge

0.06 → 0.25

Residual

-237.1%

EPS growth+316.7%
Multiple rerating-74.9%
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-237.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.