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002522.SZ$6.42+1.42%
Fair $6.42+0.0%

002522.SZ

Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Material Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShenzhen

$6.42

+0.09 (+1.42%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.42Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $91.4M · quality 64.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 52/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 2.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002522.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Material Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.8B

P/E

107.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

28.8x

↑

ROE

2.5%

↓

Gross Margin

16.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.37

↓
52-Week Range$6
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

002522.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.330Periodo +22.2%
Fair value: $6.420

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.2%

FCF CAGR

+25.6%

FCF margin

5.7%

FCF / Net income

1.57x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.61B · net income $58.3M · FCF $91.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

16.7%-4.3% pts

Operating margin

4.4%-6.2% pts

Net margin

3.6%-4.5% pts

FCF margin

5.7%+3.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.61B$1.61B$1.71B$1.73B$1.88B
Net Income$58.3M$58.3M$74.2M$104.0M$153.4M
EBITDA$226.3M$226.3M$232.9M$287.1M$335.1M
EPS0.060.060.080.110.17
Gross Margin16.7%16.7%16.4%18.5%20.9%
Operating Margin4.4%4.4%4.5%7.5%10.6%
Net Margin3.6%3.6%4.3%6.0%8.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.370.370.420.460.47
Current Ratio1.241.24———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$91.4M$91.4M$195.3M$53.0M$46.1M
Returns
ROE2.5%2.5%3.2%4.6%7.1%
Valuation
P/E107.00107.0045.8844.8232.35
EV/EBITDA28.8328.8315.9817.1915.60
P/B2.692.691.492.082.30
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.0%-6.0%-1.1%-8.3%—
EPS Growth-25.0%-25.0%-27.3%-35.3%—
Dividend Yield0.4%0.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

111.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.57

Spread vs growth

-136.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

62.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.69

Spread vs growth

-87.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

33.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.11

Spread vs growth

-58.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +27.3%

Total return

+27.3%

Start / end P/E

63.2x → 107.0x

EPS bridge

0.08 → 0.06

Residual

-17.3%

EPS growth-25.0%
Multiple rerating+69.2%
Dividend+0.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-17.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.