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002575.SZ$6.23+10.07%
Fair $6.23+0.0%

002575.SZ

Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / LeisureShenzhen

$6.23

+0.57 (+10.07%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6.23Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $19.1M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 32/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002575.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.8B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

165.6x

↑

ROE

-3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

3.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$6
$5$10

TradingView lightweight chart

002575.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6.230Periodo +41.9%
Fair value: $6.230

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+76.9%

FCF CAGR

+92.5%

FCF margin

19.8%

FCF / Net income

-3.53x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $470.5M · net income $-26.4M · FCF $93.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

3.3%-15.5% pts

Operating margin

-6.8%-8.8% pts

Net margin

-5.6%-18.9% pts

FCF margin

19.8%+4.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$470.5M$470.5M$369.5M$62.3M$85.0M
Net Income$-26.4M$-26.4M$-18.4M$9.2M$11.3M
EBITDA$24.6M$24.6M$-18.0M$12.9M$13.1M
EPS-0.04-0.04-0.030.010.02
Gross Margin3.3%3.3%4.6%33.1%18.8%
Operating Margin-6.8%-6.8%-7.6%11.1%2.0%
Net Margin-5.6%-5.6%-5.0%14.7%13.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.020.000.00
Current Ratio2.652.65———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$93.3M$93.3M$-111.9M$19.1M$13.1M
Returns
ROE-3.1%-3.1%-2.2%1.1%1.4%
Valuation
P/E———611.00312.00
EV/EBITDA165.59165.59—431.86268.58
P/B4.894.895.826.884.44
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.3%27.3%493.3%-26.7%—
EPS Growth-33.3%-33.3%-400.0%-50.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -37.7%

Total return

-37.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.03 → -0.04

Residual

-37.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-37.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.