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002612.SZ$13.67+3.56%
Fair $13.67+0.0%

002612.SZ

Lancy Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Apparel ManufacturingShenzhen

$13.67

+0.47 (+3.56%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.67Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $420.6M · quality 61.7/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 66/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002612.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Lancy Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.0B

P/E

6.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

4.8x

↓

ROE

29.4%

↑

Gross Margin

59.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.75

↑
52-Week Range$14
$13$24

TradingView lightweight chart

002612.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.67Periodo -42.0%
Fair value: $13.67

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.2%

FCF CAGR

+58.6%

FCF margin

5.7%

FCF / Net income

0.34x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.00B · net income $999.3M · FCF $339.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

59.6%+2.5% pts

Operating margin

8.6%+5.3% pts

Net margin

16.6%+16.1% pts

FCF margin

5.7%+3.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.00B$6.00B$5.84B$5.70B$4.14B
Net Income$999.3M$999.3M$260.6M$253.7M$21.4M
EBITDA$1.61B$1.61B$731.7M$680.1M$339.1M
EPS2.262.260.590.570.05
Gross Margin59.6%59.6%58.8%57.3%57.1%
Operating Margin8.6%8.6%7.5%6.6%3.3%
Net Margin16.6%16.6%4.5%4.4%0.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.750.750.880.510.68
Current Ratio0.830.83———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$339.8M$339.8M$420.6M$749.3M$85.1M
Returns
ROE29.4%29.4%9.1%7.1%0.7%
Valuation
P/E6.366.3626.3832.44540.79
EV/EBITDA4.854.8512.0814.1138.98
P/B1.781.782.402.313.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.8%2.8%2.3%37.9%—
EPS Growth283.4%283.4%2.7%1087.2%—
Dividend Yield8.8%8.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-18.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.21

Spread vs growth

302.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-8.3%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.47

Spread vs growth

291.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

0.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$2.36

Spread vs growth

282.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.6%

Total return

-10.6%

Start / end P/E

28.8x → 6.1x

EPS bridge

0.59 → 2.26

Residual

-223.8%

EPS growth+283.4%
Multiple rerating-79.0%
Dividend+8.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-223.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.