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002623.SZ$18.50-2.63%
Fair $18.50+0.0%

002623.SZ

Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd.

Technology / SolarShenzhen

$18.50

-0.50 (-2.63%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $18.50Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 23/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $41.2M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 6/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

23/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -3.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002623.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Changzhou Almaden Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.7B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

34.0x

↑

ROE

-3.9%

↓

Gross Margin

6.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.72

↑
52-Week Range$19
$14$34

TradingView lightweight chart

002623.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $19.00Periodo -50.3%
Fair value: $18.50

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.7%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.38x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.04B · net income $-107.7M · FCF $41.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

6.7%-1.5% pts

Operating margin

-2.8%-5.4% pts

Net margin

-5.3%-7.9% pts

FCF margin

2.0%+6.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.04B$2.04B$2.89B$3.63B$3.17B
Net Income$-107.7M$-107.7M$-126.8M$83.5M$83.6M
EBITDA$128.3M$128.3M$116.8M$279.5M$281.1M
EPS-0.54-0.54-0.640.430.42
Gross Margin6.7%6.7%4.5%7.6%8.1%
Operating Margin-2.8%-2.8%-1.6%2.4%2.6%
Net Margin-5.3%-5.3%-4.4%2.3%2.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.720.720.550.310.22
Current Ratio1.671.67———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$41.2M$41.2M$119.6M$-361.1M$-140.7M
Returns
ROE-3.9%-3.9%-4.2%2.6%2.6%
Valuation
P/E———60.3576.19
EV/EBITDA34.0134.0129.3119.3522.54
P/B1.331.330.971.561.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-29.6%-29.6%-20.3%14.5%—
EPS Growth15.6%15.6%-248.8%2.4%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +25.0%

Total return

+25.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.64 → -0.54

Residual

+22.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+22.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.