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002646.SZ$7.64+1.16%
Fair $7.64+0.0%

002646.SZ

Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesShenzhen

$7.64

+0.09 (+1.16%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.64Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-62.7M · quality 57.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 0.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002646.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.7B

P/E

848.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

31.3x

↑

ROE

0.2%

↓

Gross Margin

58.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$8
$7$11

TradingView lightweight chart

002646.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.830Periodo -61.4%
Fair value: $7.640

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.7%

FCF / Net income

-14.58x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.10B · net income $4.3M · FCF $-62.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

58.2%-3.9% pts

Operating margin

3.6%-5.6% pts

Net margin

0.4%-7.3% pts

FCF margin

-5.7%+1.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.10B$1.10B$1.25B$1.21B$979.9M
Net Income$4.3M$4.3M$42.1M$89.6M$75.7M
EBITDA$112.2M$112.2M$157.4M$236.1M$201.6M
EPS0.010.010.090.190.16
Gross Margin58.2%58.2%59.8%63.0%62.0%
Operating Margin3.6%3.6%5.4%11.8%9.2%
Net Margin0.4%0.4%3.4%7.4%7.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.050.050.05
Current Ratio6.346.34———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-62.7M$-62.7M$-84.4M$7.8M$-67.3M
Returns
ROE0.2%0.2%1.5%3.2%2.7%
Valuation
P/E848.89848.89113.6169.3092.82
EV/EBITDA31.2931.2928.9024.6233.05
P/B1.291.291.702.202.55
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-12.2%-12.2%3.7%23.5%—
EPS Growth-89.8%-89.8%-53.3%17.9%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

322.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-412.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

146.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.82

Spread vs growth

-236.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

64.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

-154.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.4%

Total return

-14.4%

Start / end P/E

104.4x → 870.0x

EPS bridge

0.09 → 0.01

Residual

-658.3%

EPS growth-89.8%
Multiple rerating+733.2%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-658.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.