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002661.SZ$8.21+4.72%
Fair $8.21+0.0%

002661.SZ

Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShenzhen

$8.21

+0.37 (+4.72%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.21Fund rank 22/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 17/F
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $274.5M · quality 33.7/100

Data gap 22/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

17/100

F

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 4.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002661.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.7B

P/E

58.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.4x

↑

ROE

4.1%

↓

Gross Margin

20.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.05

↑
52-Week Range$8
$8$11

TradingView lightweight chart

002661.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.210Periodo -8.8%
Fair value: $8.210

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-10.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

11.8%

FCF / Net income

5.54x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.33B · net income $92.3M · FCF $511.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

20.3%+5.2% pts

Operating margin

5.1%-0.5% pts

Net margin

2.1%-0.6% pts

FCF margin

11.8%+17.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$4.33B$4.33B$4.57B$5.18B$6.06B
Net Income$92.3M$92.3M$145.9M$-65.7M$168.4M
EBITDA$486.9M$486.9M$531.7M$227.0M$509.1M
EPS0.300.300.45-0.200.51
Gross Margin20.3%20.3%19.3%12.4%15.1%
Operating Margin5.1%5.1%6.7%1.8%5.7%
Net Margin2.1%2.1%3.2%-1.3%2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.051.051.040.910.46
Current Ratio0.670.67———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$511.6M$511.6M$-62.2M$274.5M$-328.9M
Returns
ROE4.1%4.1%6.0%-2.7%5.3%
Valuation
P/E58.6458.6421.40—22.47
EV/EBITDA9.429.429.9621.469.51
P/B1.121.121.281.311.20
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.2%-5.2%-11.9%-14.4%—
EPS Growth-33.3%-33.3%325.0%-139.2%—
Dividend Yield3.6%3.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

34.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.73

Spread vs growth

-67.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

24.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

-57.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.42

Spread vs growth

-50.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -16.3%

Total return

-16.3%

Start / end P/E

22.8x → 27.4x

EPS bridge

0.45 → 0.30

Residual

-6.7%

EPS growth-33.3%
Multiple rerating+20.1%
Dividend+3.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.