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002664.SZ$18.57-4.11%
Fair $18.57+0.0%

002664.SZ

Xinzhi Group Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$18.57

-0.79 (-4.11%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $18.57Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-390.6M · quality 60.7/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 34/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002664.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Xinzhi Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.6B

P/E

48.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.6x

↑

ROE

3.8%

↓

Gross Margin

11.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.84

↑
52-Week Range$19
$17$36

TradingView lightweight chart

002664.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $18.41Periodo +145.5%
Fair value: $18.57

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+18.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.5%

FCF / Net income

-2.98x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.10B · net income $133.7M · FCF $-398.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.0%-0.5% pts

Operating margin

4.2%+0.4% pts

Net margin

2.2%-3.5% pts

FCF margin

-6.5%+0.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.10B$6.10B$5.92B$4.62B$3.72B
Net Income$133.7M$133.7M$21.1M$242.7M$210.9M
EBITDA$513.0M$513.0M$301.5M$486.0M$310.7M
EPS0.330.330.050.600.52
Gross Margin11.0%11.0%8.5%13.7%11.6%
Operating Margin4.2%4.2%1.9%6.9%3.8%
Net Margin2.2%2.2%0.4%5.3%5.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.840.840.870.780.72
Current Ratio1.091.09———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-398.8M$-398.8M$-272.5M$-390.6M$-264.8M
Returns
ROE3.8%3.8%0.6%7.2%6.8%
Valuation
P/E48.8748.87258.4026.2326.35
EV/EBITDA17.5717.5722.0716.2122.06
P/B2.132.131.601.881.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%28.2%24.2%—
EPS Growth560.0%560.0%-91.7%15.4%—
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

70.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.65

Spread vs growth

489.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.99

Spread vs growth

516.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.21

Spread vs growth

534.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -14.0%

Total return

-14.0%

Start / end P/E

430.0x → 55.8x

EPS bridge

0.05 → 0.33

Residual

-487.3%

EPS growth+560.0%
Multiple rerating-87.0%
Dividend+0.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-487.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.