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002697.SZ$4.83-2.82%
Fair $4.83+0.0%

002697.SZ

Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresShenzhen

$4.83

-0.14 (-2.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.83Fund rank 39/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $1.2B · quality 86.0/100

Data gap 39/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002697.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.6B

P/E

14.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.1x

↓

ROE

10.0%

↑

Gross Margin

29.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$5
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

002697.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.970Periodo +73.1%
Fair value: $4.830

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.6%

FCF CAGR

-6.1%

FCF margin

12.2%

FCF / Net income

2.43x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.56B · net income $480.6M · FCF $1.17B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.6%+0.5% pts

Operating margin

5.7%+0.5% pts

Net margin

5.0%+0.2% pts

FCF margin

12.2%-1.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$9.56B$9.56B$10.12B$10.13B$10.02B
Net Income$480.6M$480.6M$521.2M$561.1M$485.7M
EBITDA$1.39B$1.39B$1.43B$1.49B$1.42B
EPS0.350.350.380.410.36
Gross Margin29.6%29.6%29.3%29.6%29.1%
Operating Margin5.7%5.7%5.3%5.4%5.1%
Net Margin5.0%5.0%5.1%5.5%4.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.200.240.29
Current Ratio1.661.66———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.17B$1.17B$1.16B$1.17B$1.41B
Returns
ROE10.0%10.0%11.7%13.7%11.7%
Valuation
P/E14.6414.6415.3912.2014.67
EV/EBITDA3.143.144.474.114.41
P/B1.391.391.801.661.72
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.6%-5.6%-0.1%1.1%—
EPS Growth-7.9%-7.9%-7.3%13.9%—
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.43

Spread vs growth

-14.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.52

Spread vs growth

-16.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.84

Spread vs growth

-17.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -15.8%

Total return

-15.8%

Start / end P/E

15.5x → 13.8x

EPS bridge

0.38 → 0.35

Residual

+0.9%

EPS growth-7.9%
Multiple rerating-11.0%
Dividend+2.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.