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002780.SZ$13.90-4.47%
Fair $13.90+0.0%

002780.SZ

Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co., Ltd

Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailShenzhen

$13.90

-0.65 (-4.47%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.90Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $32.2M · quality 49.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002780.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.3B

P/E

30.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

17.0x

↑

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

59.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.40

↓
52-Week Range$14
$12$19

TradingView lightweight chart

002780.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.55Periodo +109.2%
Fair value: $13.90

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+19.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

6.0%

FCF / Net income

1.07x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $955.6M · net income $53.4M · FCF $57.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

59.2%+6.5% pts

Operating margin

13.2%+14.0% pts

Net margin

5.6%+11.4% pts

FCF margin

6.0%+20.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$955.6M$955.6M$800.3M$846.4M$562.4M
Net Income$53.4M$53.4M$-21.5M$36.5M$-32.9M
EBITDA$139.0M$139.0M$-7.0M$111.6M$36.7M
EPS0.340.34-0.140.23-0.21
Gross Margin59.2%59.2%56.7%53.6%52.7%
Operating Margin13.2%13.2%9.5%11.9%-0.8%
Net Margin5.6%5.6%-2.7%4.3%-5.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.520.410.42
Current Ratio2.432.43———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$57.0M$57.0M$10.4M$32.2M$-82.1M
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%-3.2%5.3%-5.1%
Valuation
P/E30.8930.89—63.17—
EV/EBITDA16.9616.96—22.1658.76
P/B2.762.762.863.353.09
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth19.4%19.4%-5.5%50.5%—
EPS Growth342.9%342.9%-160.9%209.5%—
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

53.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.23

Spread vs growth

289.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

34.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.49

Spread vs growth

308.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

21.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.40

Spread vs growth

321.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.1%

Total return

+7.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.14 → 0.34

Residual

+6.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+6.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.