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002818.SZ$11.48+3.25%
Fair $11.48+0.0%

002818.SZ

Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShenzhen

$11.48

+0.36 (+3.25%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.48Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 47/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $761.8M · quality 74.3/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 73/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

47/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002818.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Chengdu Fusen Noble-House Industrial Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$8.6B

P/E

10.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.4x

↑

ROE

9.9%

↑

Gross Margin

63.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$11
$11$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002818.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.42Periodo -52.6%
Fair value: $11.48

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-6.8%

FCF CAGR

+13.8%

FCF margin

101.0%

FCF / Net income

2.18x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.20B · net income $555.5M · FCF $1.21B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

63.0%-6.0% pts

Operating margin

50.8%-7.9% pts

Net margin

46.3%-6.5% pts

FCF margin

101.0%+45.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.20B$1.20B$1.43B$1.52B$1.48B
Net Income$555.5M$555.5M$690.3M$806.3M$783.1M
EBITDA$892.0M$892.0M$1.07B$1.16B$1.14B
EPS0.740.740.921.081.05
Gross Margin63.0%63.0%67.2%70.2%69.0%
Operating Margin50.8%50.8%55.7%59.4%58.7%
Net Margin46.3%46.3%48.3%52.9%52.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio4.604.60———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.21B$1.21B$761.8M$456.3M$823.1M
Returns
ROE9.9%9.9%11.9%13.6%13.2%
Valuation
P/E10.8310.8315.7111.8511.67
EV/EBITDA9.439.439.818.157.62
P/B1.541.541.871.611.54
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-16.1%-16.1%-6.2%2.8%—
EPS Growth-19.6%-19.6%-14.8%2.9%—
Dividend Yield5.4%5.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

11.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.02

Spread vs growth

-30.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.23

Spread vs growth

-30.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.99

Spread vs growth

-29.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.9%

Total return

-5.9%

Start / end P/E

14.0x → 15.4x

EPS bridge

0.92 → 0.74

Residual

-2.0%

EPS growth-19.6%
Multiple rerating+10.2%
Dividend+5.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.