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002820.SZ$10.46+2.65%
Fair $10.46+0.0%

002820.SZ

Tianjin Guifaxiang 18th Street Mahua Food Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShenzhen

$10.46

+0.27 (+2.65%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.46Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $25.4M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -2.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002820.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Tianjin Guifaxiang 18th Street Mahua Food Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.1B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

80.1x

↑

ROE

-2.8%

↓

Gross Margin

44.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$10
$10$17

TradingView lightweight chart

002820.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.46Periodo -30.0%
Fair value: $10.46

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+25.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

5.4%

FCF / Net income

-1.03x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $471.2M · net income $-24.5M · FCF $25.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

44.9%+16.5% pts

Operating margin

-5.5%+28.8% pts

Net margin

-5.2%+24.3% pts

FCF margin

5.4%+16.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$471.2M$471.2M$495.6M$503.9M$236.3M
Net Income$-24.5M$-24.5M$27.1M$61.0M$-69.7M
EBITDA$20.3M$20.3M$67.4M$106.1M$-31.5M
EPS-0.13-0.130.140.30-0.35
Gross Margin44.9%44.9%46.0%46.0%28.4%
Operating Margin-5.5%-5.5%4.4%11.4%-34.3%
Net Margin-5.2%-5.2%5.5%12.1%-29.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.040.030.05
Current Ratio9.589.58———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$25.4M$25.4M$-120.4M$92.7M$-27.3M
Returns
ROE-2.8%-2.8%2.9%6.2%-7.3%
Valuation
P/E——83.7137.67—
EV/EBITDA80.1080.1030.4715.94—
P/B2.282.282.462.342.92
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.9%-4.9%-1.6%113.2%—
EPS Growth-192.9%-192.9%-53.3%186.4%—
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.8%

Total return

-5.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.14 → -0.13

Residual

-7.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.