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002833.SZ$18.11-1.89%
Fair $18.11+0.0%

002833.SZ

Guangzhou KDT Machinery Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$18.11

-0.36 (-1.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $18.11Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 44/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $243.5M · quality 61.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 50/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

44/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002833.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangzhou KDT Machinery Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.7B

P/E

17.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

↑

ROE

14.8%

↑

Gross Margin

32.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.28

↓
52-Week Range$18
$15$23

TradingView lightweight chart

002833.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $18.71Periodo +266.3%
Fair value: $18.11

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.5%

FCF CAGR

+89.7%

FCF margin

21.1%

FCF / Net income

1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.43B · net income $430.6M · FCF $513.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

32.1%+1.9% pts

Operating margin

20.1%-1.6% pts

Net margin

17.7%-3.6% pts

FCF margin

21.1%+17.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.43B$2.43B$2.69B$2.68B$2.13B
Net Income$430.6M$430.6M$517.4M$590.0M$454.7M
EBITDA$680.5M$680.5M$745.8M$804.4M$662.8M
EPS1.011.011.201.381.07
Gross Margin32.1%32.1%32.2%33.1%30.3%
Operating Margin20.1%20.1%22.3%25.8%21.7%
Net Margin17.7%17.7%19.2%22.0%21.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.280.280.270.250.26
Current Ratio1.721.72———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$513.4M$513.4M$243.5M$166.5M$75.2M
Returns
ROE14.8%14.8%18.3%21.9%18.0%
Valuation
P/E17.4117.4113.2612.5412.84
EV/EBITDA10.9410.948.928.588.00
P/B2.662.662.422.752.32
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.8%-9.8%0.4%26.1%—
EPS Growth-15.8%-15.8%-13.0%29.0%—
Dividend Yield4.8%4.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

16.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.61

Spread vs growth

-32.6%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.94

Spread vs growth

-29.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.13

Spread vs growth

-27.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +13.3%

Total return

+13.3%

Start / end P/E

14.4x → 18.5x

EPS bridge

1.20 → 1.01

Residual

-4.6%

EPS growth-15.8%
Multiple rerating+28.9%
Dividend+4.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-4.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.