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002852.SZ$8.05-2.90%
Fair $8.05+0.0%

002852.SZ

Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShenzhen

$8.05

-0.24 (-2.90%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.05Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 7/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $2.9B · quality 69.0/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 69/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 002852.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Daodaoquan Grain and Oil Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

19.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.1x

↓

ROE

10.4%

↑

Gross Margin

8.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.44

↑
52-Week Range$8
$8$13

TradingView lightweight chart

002852.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.050Periodo -68.9%
Fair value: $8.050

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.1%

FCF CAGR

-10.1%

FCF margin

13.7%

FCF / Net income

3.64x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.19B · net income $233.6M · FCF $850.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.3%+9.6% pts

Operating margin

4.8%+10.1% pts

Net margin

3.8%+9.7% pts

FCF margin

13.7%-2.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.19B$6.19B$5.94B$7.00B$7.03B
Net Income$233.6M$233.6M$176.9M$75.8M$-418.0M
EBITDA$449.1M$449.1M$433.1M$299.7M$-358.8M
EPS0.680.680.510.22-1.22
Gross Margin8.3%8.3%9.6%7.6%-1.2%
Operating Margin4.8%4.8%5.3%4.1%-5.3%
Net Margin3.8%3.8%3.0%1.1%-5.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.440.440.480.810.48
Current Ratio1.091.09———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$850.3M$850.3M$3.05B$2.90B$1.17B
Returns
ROE10.4%10.4%8.3%3.8%-21.0%
Valuation
P/E19.1719.1715.0948.71—
EV/EBITDA7.157.157.8216.83—
P/B1.231.231.261.852.19
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.2%4.2%-15.1%-0.4%—
EPS Growth32.0%32.0%133.5%118.1%—
Dividend Yield5.1%5.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

1.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.71

Spread vs growth

30.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

4.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.86

Spread vs growth

27.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.39

Spread vs growth

24.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -15.0%

Total return

-15.0%

Start / end P/E

19.6x → 11.9x

EPS bridge

0.51 → 0.68

Residual

-12.7%

EPS growth+32.0%
Multiple rerating-39.5%
Dividend+5.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.