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002864.SZ$29.05-0.95%
Fair $29.05+0.0%

002864.SZ

Shaanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.

Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericShenzhen

$29.05

-0.28 (-0.95%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $29.05Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 43/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $41.5M · quality 69.0/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 61/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

43/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002864.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shaanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.1B

P/E

35.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.8x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↑

Gross Margin

51.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$29
$27$43

TradingView lightweight chart

002864.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $29.33Periodo +103.1%
Fair value: $29.05

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.4%

FCF CAGR

-33.3%

FCF margin

1.8%

FCF / Net income

0.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.14B · net income $96.3M · FCF $20.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

51.9%-6.3% pts

Operating margin

10.7%-2.1% pts

Net margin

8.4%-1.9% pts

FCF margin

1.8%-5.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.14B$1.14B$973.9M$980.8M$974.3M
Net Income$96.3M$96.3M$120.3M$110.4M$101.2M
EBITDA$148.0M$148.0M$171.5M$166.4M$151.4M
EPS0.920.921.151.131.17
Gross Margin51.9%51.9%60.8%57.9%58.1%
Operating Margin10.7%10.7%12.0%12.8%12.8%
Net Margin8.4%8.4%12.3%11.3%10.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.090.070.42
Current Ratio3.763.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$20.6M$20.6M$74.5M$41.5M$69.5M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%7.4%7.1%10.9%
Valuation
P/E35.0035.0026.8633.8731.67
EV/EBITDA13.8313.8312.9116.4718.32
P/B1.801.801.982.413.45
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth17.1%17.1%-0.7%0.7%—
EPS Growth-20.0%-20.0%1.8%-3.4%—
Dividend Yield1.2%1.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

41.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.58

Spread vs growth

-61.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

27.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.12

Spread vs growth

-47.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

18.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.02

Spread vs growth

-38.5%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +3.8%

Total return

+3.8%

Start / end P/E

24.6x → 31.6x

EPS bridge

1.15 → 0.92

Residual

-5.7%

EPS growth-20.0%
Multiple rerating+28.3%
Dividend+1.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.