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002879.SZ$15.79-2.17%
Fair $15.79+0.0%

002879.SZ

Chang Lan Technology Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Electrical Equipment & PartsShenzhen

$15.79

-0.35 (-2.17%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.79Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $69.3M · quality 50.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002879.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Chang Lan Technology Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.0B

P/E

20.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.8x

↓

ROE

7.7%

↑

Gross Margin

30.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$16
$14$25

TradingView lightweight chart

002879.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.79Periodo -14.8%
Fair value: $15.79

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.8%

FCF / Net income

0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.44B · net income $133.8M · FCF $69.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.9%-13.4% pts

Operating margin

12.3%+9.5% pts

Net margin

9.3%+6.3% pts

FCF margin

4.8%+20.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.44B$1.44B$1.24B$1.04B$988.9M
Net Income$133.8M$133.8M$74.7M$72.1M$29.7M
EBITDA$255.3M$255.3M$156.1M$115.2M$58.3M
EPS0.780.780.410.380.15
Gross Margin30.9%30.9%36.4%43.3%44.3%
Operating Margin12.3%12.3%7.1%7.2%2.8%
Net Margin9.3%9.3%6.0%6.9%3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.040.000.00
Current Ratio3.823.82———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$69.3M$69.3M$52.5M$74.4M$-150.4M
Returns
ROE7.7%7.7%4.3%4.1%1.8%
Valuation
P/E20.2420.2434.2741.4796.80
EV/EBITDA8.768.7613.6619.4638.45
P/B1.561.561.491.691.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth16.0%16.0%19.2%5.4%—
EPS Growth90.2%90.2%7.9%153.3%—
Dividend Yield3.1%3.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

21.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.40

Spread vs growth

68.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.70

Spread vs growth

73.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.73

Spread vs growth

76.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +4.6%

Total return

+4.6%

Start / end P/E

37.9x → 20.2x

EPS bridge

0.41 → 0.78

Residual

-42.1%

EPS growth+90.2%
Multiple rerating-46.6%
Dividend+3.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-42.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.