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002918.SZ$12.45-3.71%
Fair $12.45+0.0%

002918.SZ

Monalisa Group CO.,Ltd

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentShenzhen

$12.45

-0.48 (-3.71%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.45Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 24%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $604.1M · quality 65.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 49/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002918.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Monalisa Group CO.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

51.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.2x

↓

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

27.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.47

↑
52-Week Range$12
$8$19

TradingView lightweight chart

002918.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.93Periodo -26.8%
Fair value: $12.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

13.0%

FCF / Net income

9.75x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.92B · net income $52.4M · FCF $511.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.3%+3.6% pts

Operating margin

7.1%+2.9% pts

Net margin

1.3%+7.4% pts

FCF margin

13.0%+13.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.92B$3.92B$4.63B$5.92B$6.23B
Net Income$52.4M$52.4M$125.0M$266.2M$-380.7M
EBITDA$554.2M$554.2M$597.6M$875.6M$57.1M
EPS0.130.130.240.64-0.92
Gross Margin27.3%27.3%27.3%29.5%23.6%
Operating Margin7.1%7.1%7.1%11.5%4.3%
Net Margin1.3%1.3%2.7%4.5%-6.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.470.470.580.890.93
Current Ratio1.261.26———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$511.0M$511.0M$668.0M$604.1M$-44.3M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%3.7%7.7%-11.7%
Valuation
P/E51.8851.8847.5420.84—
EV/EBITDA9.169.1610.667.12169.09
P/B1.521.521.781.532.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-15.3%-15.3%-21.8%-4.9%—
EPS Growth-45.8%-45.8%-62.5%169.6%—
Dividend Yield1.6%1.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

104.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.10

Spread vs growth

-149.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

59.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.34

Spread vs growth

-105.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

32.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.15

Spread vs growth

-78.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +46.8%

Total return

+46.8%

Start / end P/E

35.7x → 95.8x

EPS bridge

0.24 → 0.13

Residual

-77.1%

EPS growth-45.8%
Multiple rerating+168.2%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-77.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.