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002919.SZ$21.35-2.78%
Fair $21.35+0.0%

002919.SZ

Mingchen Health Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Household & Personal ProductsShenzhen

$21.35

-0.61 (-2.78%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $21.35Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 4/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $56.6M · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 21/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002919.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Mingchen Health Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.7B

P/E

237.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

70.3x

↑

ROE

3.5%

↓

Gross Margin

54.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$21
$14$28

TradingView lightweight chart

002919.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $21.96Periodo +297.7%
Fair value: $21.35

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+17.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.1%

FCF / Net income

0.04x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.51B · net income $28.3M · FCF $1.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

54.1%+1.6% pts

Operating margin

1.5%+2.8% pts

Net margin

1.9%-0.8% pts

FCF margin

0.1%+8.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.51B$1.51B$1.38B$1.64B$945.4M
Net Income$28.3M$28.3M$46.7M$70.4M$25.4M
EBITDA$79.2M$79.2M$76.3M$235.6M$67.5M
EPS0.110.110.180.260.09
Gross Margin54.1%54.1%52.5%60.3%52.5%
Operating Margin1.5%1.5%7.3%6.2%-1.3%
Net Margin1.9%1.9%3.4%4.3%2.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.030.070.12
Current Ratio1.691.69———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$1.1M$1.1M$116.7M$56.6M$-77.3M
Returns
ROE3.5%3.5%5.7%8.7%3.4%
Valuation
P/E237.22237.2286.2581.06261.40
EV/EBITDA70.2570.2550.8223.7197.60
P/B7.057.054.897.048.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.7%9.7%-15.7%73.2%—
EPS Growth-39.4%-39.4%-32.6%183.6%—
Dividend Yield0.2%0.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

161.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.89

Spread vs growth

-200.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

84.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.29

Spread vs growth

-124.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

42.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.69

Spread vs growth

-82.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +34.2%

Total return

+34.2%

Start / end P/E

90.9x → 201.0x

EPS bridge

0.18 → 0.11

Residual

-47.7%

EPS growth-39.4%
Multiple rerating+121.1%
Dividend+0.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-47.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.