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002928.SZ$7.61-1.30%
Fair $7.61+0.0%

002928.SZ

China Express Airlines Co.,LTD

Industrials / AirlinesShenzhen

$7.61

-0.10 (-1.30%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.61Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 7/9
High Debt

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 13%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $780.9M · quality 19.3/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 29/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 4.14, above the 2.0 threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002928.SZLocal privado en este navegador · China Express Airlines Co.,LTD
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.7B

P/E

14.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.6x

↓

ROE

16.2%

↑

Gross Margin

2.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

4.14

↑
52-Week Range$8
$7$12

TradingView lightweight chart

002928.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.710Periodo -41.6%
Fair value: $7.610

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+41.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

2.0%

FCF / Net income

0.24x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.46B · net income $625.9M · FCF $148.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

2.2%+49.7% pts

Operating margin

16.4%+67.5% pts

Net margin

8.4%+83.1% pts

FCF margin

2.0%+3.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.46B$7.46B$6.70B$5.15B$2.64B
Net Income$625.9M$625.9M$268.0M$-965.0M$-1.97B
EBITDA$2.77B$2.77B$2.31B$718.8M$-766.2M
EPS0.490.490.21-0.76-1.91
Gross Margin2.2%2.2%1.8%-7.0%-47.5%
Operating Margin16.4%16.4%12.3%-7.4%-51.0%
Net Margin8.4%8.4%4.0%-18.7%-74.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity4.144.144.354.322.99
Current Ratio0.830.83———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$148.8M$148.8M$1.51B$780.9M$-35.0M
Returns
ROE16.2%16.2%8.0%-31.3%-48.7%
Valuation
P/E14.3614.3634.78——
EV/EBITDA8.658.659.6528.28—
P/B2.522.522.782.893.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth11.4%11.4%30.0%94.9%—
EPS Growth133.6%133.6%127.7%60.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

11.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

122.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

10.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.82

Spread vs growth

122.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

10.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

123.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -1.7%

Total return

-1.7%

Start / end P/E

36.9x → 15.5x

EPS bridge

0.21 → 0.49

Residual

-77.4%

EPS growth+133.6%
Multiple rerating-57.9%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-77.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.