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002930.SZ$10.45-7.69%
Fair $10.45+0.0%

002930.SZ

Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Marine ShippingShenzhen

$10.45

-0.87 (-7.69%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.45Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 13/F
F-Score: 2/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $429.6M · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 82/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

13/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.69, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -20.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 002930.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.8B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

28.7x

↑

ROE

-20.6%

↓

Gross Margin

37.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

2.69

↑
52-Week Range$10
$10$17

TradingView lightweight chart

002930.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.32Periodo +67.8%
Fair value: $10.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.0%

FCF CAGR

-10.2%

FCF margin

29.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.81x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.19B · net income $-429.7M · FCF $347.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

37.6%-18.6% pts

Operating margin

15.7%-24.3% pts

Net margin

-36.1%-53.9% pts

FCF margin

29.2%-8.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.19B$1.19B$1.45B$1.55B$1.26B
Net Income$-429.7M$-429.7M$158.3M$296.3M$224.5M
EBITDA$349.8M$349.8M$948.4M$1.11B$867.4M
EPS-0.94-0.940.340.650.50
Gross Margin37.6%37.6%49.6%57.6%56.2%
Operating Margin15.7%15.7%33.1%42.4%40.0%
Net Margin-36.1%-36.1%10.9%19.2%17.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.692.692.172.132.51
Current Ratio0.530.53———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$347.8M$347.8M$429.6M$759.1M$479.5M
Returns
ROE-20.6%-20.6%6.0%11.2%9.5%
Valuation
P/E——30.1229.3538.76
EV/EBITDA28.7428.7410.5612.4015.83
P/B2.292.291.823.293.67
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.9%-17.9%-6.3%22.5%—
EPS Growth-376.5%-376.5%-47.7%30.0%—
Dividend Yield4.9%4.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +8.1%

Total return

+8.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.34 → -0.94

Residual

+3.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+4.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+3.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.