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002949.SZ$12.30-4.35%
Fair $12.30+0.0%

002949.SZ

Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco.,Ltd

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShenzhen

$12.30

-0.56 (-4.35%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.30Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 36/D
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $134.9M · quality 74.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 64/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

36/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002949.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.4B

P/E

26.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.8x

↑

ROE

5.7%

↓

Gross Margin

27.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.29

↓
52-Week Range$12
$12$17

TradingView lightweight chart

002949.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.30Periodo -18.7%
Fair value: $12.30

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.0%

FCF CAGR

+7.1%

FCF margin

11.2%

FCF / Net income

1.49x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.20B · net income $90.6M · FCF $134.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.6%-1.6% pts

Operating margin

13.9%-0.0% pts

Net margin

7.5%+1.4% pts

FCF margin

11.2%+5.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.20B$1.20B$1.17B$1.51B$1.83B
Net Income$90.6M$90.6M$125.3M$161.3M$112.2M
EBITDA$208.5M$208.5M$240.6M$280.1M$232.6M
EPS——0.630.780.55
Gross Margin27.6%27.6%35.1%32.2%29.2%
Operating Margin13.9%13.9%18.6%17.5%13.9%
Net Margin7.5%7.5%10.7%10.7%6.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.290.290.280.280.30
Current Ratio1.301.30———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$134.9M$134.9M$48.7M$216.9M$109.7M
Returns
ROE5.7%5.7%8.0%10.2%7.6%
Valuation
P/E26.1726.1725.4118.2126.67
EV/EBITDA12.7712.7713.559.1812.11
P/B1.531.532.041.862.02
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth3.1%3.1%-22.6%-17.5%—
EPS Growth——-19.0%42.0%—
Dividend Yield1.6%1.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.0%

Total return

-12.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.63 → n/d

Residual

-13.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.