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002973.SZ$12.44+0.89%
Fair $12.44+0.0%

002973.SZ

QiaoYin City Management Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Waste ManagementShenzhen

$12.44

+0.11 (+0.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.44Fund rank 19/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-238.4M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 19/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 5/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 002973.SZLocal privado en este navegador · QiaoYin City Management Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

33.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.6x

↑

ROE

7.1%

↑

Gross Margin

27.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.35

↑
52-Week Range$12
$11$17

TradingView lightweight chart

002973.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.33Periodo +49.1%
Fair value: $12.44

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

7.5%

FCF / Net income

1.47x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.61B · net income $183.9M · FCF $271.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.2%+1.8% pts

Operating margin

16.6%+2.1% pts

Net margin

5.1%-2.9% pts

FCF margin

7.5%+16.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.61B$3.61B$3.91B$3.94B$3.95B
Net Income$183.9M$183.9M$289.2M$316.8M$314.6M
EBITDA$708.4M$708.4M$821.4M$792.2M$754.1M
EPS0.450.450.710.780.77
Gross Margin27.2%27.2%26.9%26.0%25.4%
Operating Margin16.6%16.6%17.2%15.6%14.5%
Net Margin5.1%5.1%7.4%8.0%8.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.351.351.441.661.71
Current Ratio1.381.38———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$271.3M$271.3M$-238.4M$-440.0M$-346.4M
Returns
ROE7.1%7.1%11.9%14.5%16.4%
Valuation
P/E33.6233.6214.2014.4514.27
EV/EBITDA11.5911.598.889.749.45
P/B1.971.971.692.092.35
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.7%-7.7%-0.7%-0.3%—
EPS Growth-36.6%-36.6%-9.0%1.3%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

34.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.10

Spread vs growth

-71.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

24.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.34

Spread vs growth

-60.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.15

Spread vs growth

-53.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +4.1%

Total return

+4.1%

Start / end P/E

17.0x → 27.6x

EPS bridge

0.71 → 0.45

Residual

-23.1%

EPS growth-36.6%
Multiple rerating+63.0%
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-23.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.