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002991.SZ$48.78+3.00%
Fair $48.78+0.0%

002991.SZ

Ganyuan Foods Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShenzhen

$48.78

+1.42 (+3.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $48.78Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $83.5M · quality 65.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 57/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 002991.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Ganyuan Foods Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.5B

P/E

19.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

12.6x

↑

ROE

12.2%

↑

Gross Margin

34.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$49
$45$70

TradingView lightweight chart

002991.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $48.78Periodo -12.6%
Fair value: $48.78

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.0%

FCF CAGR

-9.9%

FCF margin

6.4%

FCF / Net income

0.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.10B · net income $208.4M · FCF $134.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.8%+0.5% pts

Operating margin

11.3%-2.6% pts

Net margin

9.9%-1.0% pts

FCF margin

6.4%-6.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.10B$2.10B$2.26B$1.85B$1.45B
Net Income$208.4M$208.4M$376.2M$329.1M$158.3M
EBITDA$313.5M$313.5M$501.4M$457.1M$264.4M
EPS2.302.304.143.581.72
Gross Margin34.8%34.8%35.5%36.2%34.3%
Operating Margin11.3%11.3%18.9%20.8%14.0%
Net Margin9.9%9.9%16.7%17.8%10.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.030.000.00
Current Ratio4.754.75———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$134.6M$134.6M$58.9M$83.5M$184.2M
Returns
ROE12.2%12.2%21.9%19.5%10.5%
Valuation
P/E19.9119.9121.6619.7242.70
EV/EBITDA12.5912.5915.3012.7823.81
P/B2.582.584.753.854.49
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-7.1%-7.1%22.2%27.4%—
EPS Growth-44.4%-44.4%15.6%108.1%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

23.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$4.33

Spread vs growth

-67.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.24

Spread vs growth

-62.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$8.43

Spread vs growth

-58.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -23.9%

Total return

-23.9%

Start / end P/E

16.2x → 21.2x

EPS bridge

4.14 → 2.30

Residual

-13.8%

EPS growth-44.4%
Multiple rerating+31.1%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-13.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.