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003012.SZ$5.07-2.27%
Fair $5.07+0.0%

003012.SZ

Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentShenzhen

$5.07

-0.12 (-2.27%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.07Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 6/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $518.3M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 4.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 003012.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.9B

P/E

17.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

3.4x

↓

ROE

4.6%

↓

Gross Margin

30.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$5
$5$8

TradingView lightweight chart

003012.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.160Periodo -68.4%
Fair value: $5.070

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.6%

FCF / Net income

1.47x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.06B · net income $351.9M · FCF $518.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.0%+0.3% pts

Operating margin

8.7%+3.8% pts

Net margin

5.8%+2.9% pts

FCF margin

8.6%+14.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.06B$6.06B$6.47B$7.77B$6.93B
Net Income$351.9M$351.9M$328.5M$720.4M$202.0M
EBITDA$1.01B$1.01B$940.3M$1.42B$784.5M
EPS0.310.310.280.610.17
Gross Margin30.0%30.0%29.7%32.0%29.7%
Operating Margin8.7%8.7%7.4%12.0%4.9%
Net Margin5.8%5.8%5.1%9.3%2.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.070.060.17
Current Ratio1.801.80———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$518.3M$518.3M$408.1M$1.56B$-413.2M
Returns
ROE4.6%4.6%4.3%9.3%2.8%
Valuation
P/E17.4817.4821.9613.5250.59
EV/EBITDA3.363.364.864.6910.82
P/B0.760.760.941.251.42
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.3%-6.3%-16.8%12.2%—
EPS Growth10.7%10.7%-54.1%258.8%—
Dividend Yield4.8%4.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

13.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.45

Spread vs growth

-2.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

11.9%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.54

Spread vs growth

-1.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

11.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.88

Spread vs growth

-0.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -9.7%

Total return

-9.7%

Start / end P/E

21.6x → 16.6x

EPS bridge

0.28 → 0.31

Residual

-2.4%

EPS growth+10.7%
Multiple rerating-22.8%
Dividend+4.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.