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003013.SZ$14.76-1.01%
Fair $14.76+0.0%

003013.SZ

Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionShenzhen

$14.76

-0.15 (-1.01%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $14.76Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-106.0M · quality 44.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 13/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 003013.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$6.8B

P/E

12.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.4x

↓

ROE

15.4%

↑

Gross Margin

38.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.16

↓
52-Week Range$15
$13$17

TradingView lightweight chart

003013.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $14.91Periodo -22.9%
Fair value: $14.76

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.2%

FCF CAGR

-64.9%

FCF margin

0.3%

FCF / Net income

0.02x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.57B · net income $465.6M · FCF $8.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

38.6%+5.5% pts

Operating margin

24.3%+5.0% pts

Net margin

18.2%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

0.3%-7.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.57B$2.57B$2.75B$2.57B$2.48B
Net Income$465.6M$465.6M$491.9M$431.9M$399.8M
EBITDA$656.8M$656.8M$662.7M$589.8M$543.0M
EPS1.151.151.231.081.00
Gross Margin38.6%38.6%38.4%37.2%33.1%
Operating Margin24.3%24.3%25.1%23.6%19.4%
Net Margin18.2%18.2%17.9%16.8%16.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.160.160.140.150.03
Current Ratio1.481.48———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$8.1M$8.1M$-259.9M$-106.0M$187.7M
Returns
ROE15.4%15.4%17.9%17.9%18.5%
Valuation
P/E12.4012.4011.7616.0615.56
EV/EBITDA8.448.447.9110.129.06
P/B1.971.972.102.882.88
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.6%-6.6%6.8%3.9%—
EPS Growth-6.5%-6.5%13.9%8.0%—
Dividend Yield3.2%3.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

4.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$1.31

Spread vs growth

-10.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.58

Spread vs growth

-13.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.55

Spread vs growth

-14.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +0.1%

Total return

+0.1%

Start / end P/E

12.4x → 12.8x

EPS bridge

1.23 → 1.15

Residual

-0.2%

EPS growth-6.5%
Multiple rerating+3.7%
Dividend+3.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.