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0038.HK$8.61+4.24%
Fair $8.61+0.0%

0038.HK

First Tractor Company Limited

Industrials / Farm & Heavy Construction MachineryHKSE

$8.61

+0.35 (+4.24%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.61Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 26% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $967.2M · quality 63.3/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 53/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 0038.HKLocal privado en este navegador · First Tractor Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.7B

P/E

9.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

10.7x

↑

ROE

10.6%

↑

Gross Margin

15.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.40

↑
52-Week Range$9
$6$11

TradingView lightweight chart

0038.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.610Periodo +682.7%
Fair value: $8.610

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.6%

FCF CAGR

-40.9%

FCF margin

6.7%

FCF / Net income

0.89x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $10.82B · net income $812.0M · FCF $722.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.1%-0.6% pts

Operating margin

6.8%+0.2% pts

Net margin

7.5%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

6.7%-21.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$10.82B$10.82B$11.90B$11.53B$12.46B
Net Income$812.0M$812.0M$922.0M$997.0M$681.1M
EBITDA$1.01B$1.01B$1.13B$1.11B$729.4M
EPS0.720.720.820.890.61
Gross Margin15.1%15.1%14.8%15.1%15.7%
Operating Margin6.8%6.8%7.6%6.9%6.5%
Net Margin7.5%7.5%7.7%8.6%5.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.400.400.390.360.37
Current Ratio1.201.20———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$722.8M$722.8M$1.10B$967.2M$3.51B
Returns
ROE10.6%10.6%12.7%14.9%11.4%
Valuation
P/E9.909.908.715.656.17
EV/EBITDA10.7310.737.584.742.78
P/B1.261.261.110.840.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-9.1%-9.1%3.3%-7.4%—
EPS Growth-11.9%-11.9%-7.5%46.4%—
Dividend Yield7.3%7.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

1.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.76

Spread vs growth

-13.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.0%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.92

Spread vs growth

-17.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.49

Spread vs growth

-19.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +41.2%

Total return

+41.2%

Start / end P/E

7.8x → 11.9x

EPS bridge

0.82 → 0.72

Residual

-6.2%

EPS growth-11.9%
Multiple rerating+52.1%
Dividend+7.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.